The Iliad, Probabilistically

I am reading The Iliad right now, and as I make my way through Homer's epic poem, I find myself referring constantly back to a point that Taleb makes in his book, Fooled by Randomness:

My very first impression upon a recent rereading of The Iliad, the first in my adulthood, is that the epic poet did not judge his heroes by the result. Heroes won and lost battles in a manner that was totally independent of their own valor; their fate depended upon totally external forces, generally the explicit agency of the scheming gods (not devoid of nepotism). Heroes are heroes because they are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost. Patrocles does not strike us as a hero because of his accomplishments (he was rapidly killed) but because he preferred to die than see Achilles sulking into inaction. (34)

Taleb's observation really drives home for me the appeal of probabilistic thinking. Probabilistic thinking provides a way to understand the real limitations of individual agency and gives the prominence of circumstance/ground/luck a fair reckoning. From Vonnegut's Slaughterhouse Five, a similar idea:

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom always to tell the difference. (60)

Probabilistic thinking once again! An elegant way to deal with uncertainty, isn't it? A clarion call to live honorably, to live with probabilistic greatness, regardless of result.